Little to Cheer About Security In 2011

 (The Asian Age 4 Jan 12)

Anil Bhat

Taking stock of  India’s policies, responses on various national security issues over 2011 from Raisina Hill and the situation  on the ground and on the high seas, there is little to cheer about. 

Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) The attack on the state’s  Law and Parliamentary Affairs minister Ali Mohammad Sagar by Pakistani terrorists following earlier ones only underscores what Defence Minister A. K. Antony quoted recently, said "Even though violence levels have reduced substantially, attempts at infiltration are still persisting... We can't ignore the threat". Chief  Minister Omar Abdullah has been campaigning for demilitarization and removal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) from some parts of the state, which reportedly the Union Home Ministry supports. Mr. Abdullah has also mooted the raising of 50 police battalions to replace Army and para-military forces in the Valley. 

While GOC 15 Corps Lt Gen Ata Hasnain categorically said that Pakistan will stoke more trouble in Kashmir once US-led forces exit Afghanistan, intelligence inputs received by various Army formations in J& K appear to suggest that infiltration is on the rise after the State Government's move for a partial withdrawal of AFSPA. Mr Antony stated in Parliament on December 07, 2011 that as per the assessment of the Multi Agency Centre (MAC), 68 militants attempted to infiltrate across the Line of Control (LoC) during September and October 2011, as compared to 85 such attempts during the corresponding period in 2010. 12 terrorists were killed and one terrorist apprehended by Army in 2011, while trying to infiltrate in J&K. 

 During this period 5 Army personnel were killed and 8 were wounded during conduct of anti-infiltration operations along the LoC. He further stated that it was owing to the Army’s “robust counter-infiltration strategy” involving troop deployment and use of surveillance and monitoring devices and the LoC fence that have enhanced the ability to detect and intercept terrorists attempting to infiltrate/exfiltrate. This is just as well, because as brought out by this daily, painstaking investigation by Indian Intelligence agencies has revealed founder of Lashkar e Taiyyaba (LeT, renamed Jamaat ud Dawa) Hafiz Saeed’s latest plans for a winter offensive not only in J&K, but also in important Indian cities during assembly elections. Heavy snow on mountain passes during winter has been deterring infiltration attempts across the LoC by Pakistani terrorists. Saeed has been exhorting LeT operatives at Muridke, Lahore and Peshawar Cantonment to mobilize terrorists specially trained to operate in heavy snow in order to ensure their induction during winter months. In view of  all these factors, New Delhi must have no doubts or contradictions on national security.

  

Pakistan While talks, albeit inconclusive during the recent round, will continue, despite Pak army’s continued active support of groups like LeT and some others for anti-India operations, the National Intelligence Agency (NIA) on December 24 filed charge sheets against nine persons, including two serving Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) officers- Major Iqbal and Major Samir Ali - as well as Pakistani-American LeT operative Daood Gilani aka David Coleman Headley and Hafiz Saeed, for the 26/11 attacks in India. This is the first time India has framed terror charges against serving officers of Pakistan's Army for terror attacks in India. National Investigation Agency (NIA) has prepared a 'Terror Funding Template' (TFT), which will help its officials and investigators of states' anti-terror agencies to extract information on terror funding. The TFT has been circulated to all states and Union Territories for getting relevant information from terrorists and terror suspects during their interrogation and probe. Islamabad has formally conveyed to India that its nine-member judicial commission will visit here in January to interview key persons linked to the probe into the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks.

North East  Nothing was done about Manipur’s main highways  again being blockaded for months on end this year. The Centre has been having talks with the Issac- muivah faction of  National Socialist Council of Nagaland/Nagalim, (NSCN- IM) since 1997 and with United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) since this year. On NSCN talks, a leading local daily of Manipur  reported: “Like in 1949 when the Congress party conspired and usurped the sovereignty of Manipur, it is now plotting to disintegrate Manipur” by agreeing to its own flag and “a supra state body ….encompass Nagas of Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh is tantamount to establishing a separate administration for Nagas outside the jurisprudence of these three States”.

 On ULFA, the Centre has begun talks with a faction formed of terrorists handed over by Bangladesh, who Assam Chief Minister bailed out of jail to help him win elections for the third time and some of who are reported to be clandestinely still involved with Paresh Baruah’s anti-talks group hiding in Burma and indulging in attacks, extortion and abductions  in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, where the Army busted some camps of  the outfit. Meanwhile  the tie-up between Naxal-Maoists with the aforementioned terrorist groups and some more of Manipur, all  involved in training and supplying them weapons from China, has been growing, with the late Kishenji having visited Assam for coordination, just before he was killed. Much more needs to be done by Assam government on both counts. 

Burma India ’s ongoing cooperation with Burma/ Myanmar has been disproportionate, in that the latter  has requested for and received many categories of military hardware and equipment, but assurance of  its territory not being allowed to be used for insurgent activities against India has never been effective. Elements of United National Liberation Front, People's Liberation Army - the armed wing of the Revolutionary People's Front, the warring factions of the NSCN-IM and NSCN-K ( Khaplang) the ULFA have maintained tactical bases in Myanmar . Following Myanmar Army’s recent operation against Indian insurgent-terrorist groups hiding in the Taga region, media cited home ministry sources saying that it was an eyewash conducted a week after it tipped-off  Indian insurgent-terrorist leaders.

China The press release issued following the  recent  4^th India-China Annual Defence Dialogue conducted on November  09, 2011 in the Defence Ministry, New Delhi stated:  “it was conducted in an atmosphere of cordiality and both sides were frank and constructive in their approach during the deliberations…. It was noted that existing confidence building measures on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between both countries were successful in maintaining peace and tranquility on the borders. It was decided that such measures would continue to be implemented. Both sides agreed that the process of dialogue and communication should be strengthened at various levels to ensure stability in the border areas. Both sides agreed that the provisions of the 2005 Protocol for implementation of CBMs on the LAC should be strictly adhered to by both sides so that peace and tranquility is maintained in the border areas. It was also noted that the strengthening of the institutional mechanism for border discussions, which is expected to be operationalised soon through the establishment of a working level mechanism, would improve communications on important border related issues”.

Whereas, since the fierce confrontation at Nathu La in 1967, no bullets have been fired, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has kept the 4,057-km LAC live with incursions. Three sectors of the LAC are western (Ladakh), middle (Uttarakhand, Himachal) and eastern (Sikkim, Arunachal), Arunachal.  While incursions in Aunachal Pradesh and Sikkim were considered routine, the ones in Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K) Ladakh region since 2009, particularly when seen in the light of decades old anti-India based Sino – Pak relationship and joint military exercises, like Stride 2009, conducted in China’s northwest Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, at an unprecedented level of 50,000 troops and aiming to test its long-distance mobility, is certainly a cause for concern. Chinese incursions have involved violations of air space, air dropping of expired tinned food, painting of rocks etc. 

Another major cause of worry is construction of airfields, roads, railway lines and strategic link up of Kashghar, in Pakistan with Havelian in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and ultimtely with Tibet’s Medong region bordering Arunachal. Also worrying are China’s efforts to bolster surveillance  capability by constructing border out posts (BOPs), which  at places, can also be used for directing precision guided munitions (tv guided cruise missiles, terrain guided missiles eg- KH59 mk II, which has a range of over 1200 kms )- all of which have the potential to substantially alter the strategic balance in favour of China. 

According to a September 29, 2011 media report, a secret note to the ministry of external affairs revealed that the PLA troops of have been violating the LAC at will, with as many as 50 incursions in three months, some as much as 7 kms inside Indian territory in J&K. Some instances are: (a) On September 16, 2011, there was a face-off at the Demchok post when the Chinese came close to Indian patrol. The Indians disengaged and performed a banner drill, but the Chinese did not withdraw. (b) On  September 9 about a dozen PLA soldiers reached Barahoti in the middle sector on horseback. Later a Chinese PLA vehicle came to the Tunjun La area and erected some antennas 4.5 km deep inside the Indian territory. (c)  On September 2, there was face-off at the Thakung post on the Sino-Indian boundary in the western sector of J&K. (d) On August 22, four Chinese boats carrying PLA personnel entered 5.5 km deep into the Indian territory in the Pangong Tso area. (e) On August 19, an Indian patrol, had a face-off with the PLA in Pangong Tso area. (f) On August 16, 48 PLA personnel intruded 7 km into the Indian territory. 

For a change New Delhi is being assertive y questioning its claims on the South China Sea, forging strategic ties with Vietnam, Japan and Australia and not reacting to China’s objections on Dalai Lama’s presence at the Tibetan conclave.

Naxal-Maoist terrorism, there is some progress but much more needs to be done by all the affected states in coordination with the Centre. Long pending police reforms urgently need to be implemented with special stress on recruitment to greatly increase policeman to population ratio and proper counter-terrorism  training.

Coastal security While Indian Navy and Indian Coast Guard have been working closely with various government agencies of coastal states for establishing a synergised mechanism in accordance with the Cabinet Committee on Security’s directives issued in February 2009, only some progress has been made and interim Standard Operating Procedures promulgated for joint patrolling in territorial waters and revalidated regularly through conduct of security exercises like Sagar Kavach.

The disconnect between Ministries of  Defence and Home and External Affairs must be rectified. Some other ministries must also be included effectively. Military  and internal security acquisitions need to be expedited.